Governor of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB), Timothy Antoine, says the economic impact of new tariffs announced by United States President Donald Trump is unlikely to be felt in the Caribbean until later this year and into 2026.
However, he warned that the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) must take proactive steps to avoid inflationary pressures, particularly by reassessing its dependence on Miami as a key logistics hub.
“The big issue is understanding what that shock will mean and its implications, obviously, for tourism, not in the near term,” Antoine told journalists in Washington on Wednesday.
He spoke following a meeting between Caribbean finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Western Hemisphere Department, held as part of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, which run through Friday.
According to Antoine, a central concern at the meeting was the high level of uncertainty in the global economic outlook. This comes just one day after the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), projecting that economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will moderate from 2.4 percent in 2024 to 2 percent in 2025, before rebounding to 2.4 percent in 2026.
These projections reflect a downward revision of 0.5 percentage points for 2025 and 0.3 percentage points for 2026 compared to January’s forecast.
“So, what we know for a fact is that growth has slowed, and the projection by the IMF out of this World Economic Outlook is for lower growth for the global economy, for the US, and for the Caribbean,” Antoine said.
“The magnitude of that reduction is still up for discussion. And to be honest with you, it will not be resolved until the question of the tariffs, for example, is settled.”
President Trump’s proposed tariffs include a 125 percent levy on Chinese imports and 20 percent on goods from the European Union. In the Caribbean, most regional countries face a 10 percent tariff, with Guyana facing a 38 percent tariff.
Trump defended the move as a step toward revitalizing US manufacturing and condemned the global trade system the US once helped build, saying:
“Our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered” by other nations.
Antoine stressed the need to wait for negotiations to determine the full impact of the tariffs:
“As you know, right now, there are negotiations going on or are expected, and we have to see where the tariffs land,” he said.
He explained that CARICOM relies heavily on US imports—both directly and indirectly.
“… But 20 percent of our imports from the US come from third countries, meaning they did not originate in the US. So, we have to see what the tariffs are on those countries …. those will be shipped to the US and then come to the region, they will have an effect on us in terms of inflation, a rise in price levels,” Antoine said.
He also highlighted the region’s dependence on American tourism, noting that half of all visitors to Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries—comprising Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, and St Vincent and the Grenadines—come from the United States.
“But certainly, we could see in the latter part of the year, next year, we could see some impact on our tourism arrivals,” he said, warning that a slowdown in the US economy “ultimately could and will have an effect on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.”
Antoine called for a serious reevaluation of regional logistics and shipping practices.
“Clearly, we have to look very seriously now at our logistics hub, where we source and how things are shipped to our region and within the region.”
Currently, much of CARICOM’s trade relies on the port of Miami.
“A lot of our trade is being shipped to Miami, for example, on Tropical Shipping, and then coming back down. So even within the Caribbean, we are using US ports for trade,” he said, adding that Caribbean nations “clearly have to fix that, to make it cheaper, to make it faster and, obviously, to make it more reliable.”
“So that is a big discussion that is required, that we must have an answer around what the logistics hub, the trade logistics hub for our region, CARICOM should be.
“Should it be Jamaica? Should it be the Dominican Republic? Should it be Trinidad? Should it be Panama? Those are options we can consider but we need to come up with some decisions around that.”
Antoine stressed that the region must also address food security and health.
“Again, this is a moment that cannot be wasted. We have to make a full commitment to really boost food and nutrition security.”
He emphasized the crucial role of shipping in achieving this:
“If you’re moving food from a surplus country to a deficit country, you’re moving sweet potatoes or yams from one to the next, you need shipping,” he said, adding that current infrastructure “is not properly established and it needs to be addressed.”
He linked trade patterns to rising rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs):
“There is also the issue of costs, because, frankly spoken, some of the ultra-processed food, which is driving NCDs —non-communicable diseases — in our region, or in part, those foods are cheaper than locally produced foods and organic foods.
“And we have to address that question because in an environment where budgets are tight, both at the family level —household level — and at the state level, people are going to make decisions based on what they can afford.”
“It is finding affordable, healthier options. And so, the investment now in food and nutrition security is going to be really, really important to help bring down those costs.
“That is not easy, that is what we have to do to address both the fiscal situation, economic situation and, as you pointed out, the health situation.”
Noting that eight in ten deaths in the region are due to NCDs, Antoine said:
“Just think about the economic cost of that. And then you think about the familial cost, the impact on productivity. It’s a serious issue.”
He added that although progress has been made in promoting healthy diets:
“But what we find is that when the economy starts to improve, we see more and more food imports going up,” he said, citing post-pandemic trends.
“So, during the pandemic, it went down because things slowed, but once things picked up, food imports went back up, and we are not anywhere close to the target of reducing our food import bill by 25 percent,” Antoine said, referencing CARICOM’s 2025 goal.
“But we are working on it, and I think this is a moment for us to really make a breakthrough in this area,” he concluded.