The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its new Regional Economic Outlook report for the Western Hemisphere says Guyana will continue to experience robust economic expansion even as other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean face less favourable growth conditions and brace for a slowdown in their productive sectors.
The report noted that Guyana should record a 38.4 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate this year and next year, the country’s growth should continue with an expansion of 26.6 per cent expected.
The debt taken on by the government is projected to be about 29.9 per cent of GDP while a 7.2 per cent inflation rate is also expected.
This debt refers to all external financial obligations including loans taken while inflation, generally, is the rate of price increases over a period of time.
Guyana is the only country expecting double-digit growth. St. Vincent and the Grenadines (6.2 per cent) and Panama (6.0 per cent) are the countries with the next highest growth rates.
The entire Latin America and Caribbean region expects a 2.3 per cent growth rate this year while growth among the non-tourism dependent countries in the Caribbean – Haiti, Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago -should be 13.6 per cent this year.
The IMF also projects a 1.6 per cent growth rate for South American and a 3.8 per cent growth rate for the bloc of countries encompassing Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic.
In Guyana’s case, massive oil finds offshore are contributing to the high economic growth rates expected.
“Growth in the Caribbean commodity exporters will slow down in 2023 and further in 2024 as these countries face less favourable external conditions, although Guyana will continue to grow at a robust pace following the discovery of sizable oil reserves,” the IMF said.
The slowdown in other countries has been attributed to a weaker external environment, severe weather conditions and a softening demand for tourism services.
In September, President Dr Irfaan Ali announced that Guyana recorded a 59.5 per cent economic growth rate at the half-year mark with the non-oil economy growing by 12.3 per cent.
Based on the mid-year report, the government projects that real GDP growth for the entire 2023 will be 28.2 per cent while non-oil growth alone will be 9.3 per cent.