According to the latest Global Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday, Guyana is predicted to have the greatest growth rate among Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries this year, while Haiti is expected to have less than 1% growth in 2023.
According to the IMF, Guyana, which is now recognized as an oil-producing country following the discovery of the substance a few years ago, would experience 37.2 percent economic growth this year, rising to 45.3 percent the following year.
St Vincent and the Grenadines, the CARICOM country with the second highest anticipated economic growth of 6% this year, would see a 5% increase in 2024.
Antigua and Barbuda’s growth rate of 5.5 percent this year is expected to fall slightly to 5.4 percent next year, while Dominica and Barbados are expected to post 4.9 percent growth this year, decreasing to 4.7 and 3.9 percent, respectively, in 2024.
According to IMF projections, the twin island Federation of St Kitts-Nevis will record 4.5 percent economic growth this year, dropping to 3.8 percent the following year, while the Bahamas’ economic growth this year is projected to be 4.3 percent, dropping significantly to 1.8 percent the following year.
Belize, Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago will all expand by three percent or more this year, while growth in Belize will fall to two percent next year, Grenada will grow by four percent, St Lucia will grow by 2.2 percent, and Trinidad and Tobago will grow by 2.3 percent.
Suriname, a Dutch-speaking CARICOM country, will see economic growth of 2.3% this year, rising to 3% the following year, while Haiti, where political and social upheaval has consumed the country, will see economic growth of 0.3% this year, rising to 1.2% the following year.
The Washington-based financial institution stated in its study that the world economy is gradually recovering from both the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It stated that China’s reopened economy is rebounding strongly and that supply chain interruptions are dissipating, while war-related disruptions to oil and food markets are receding. “Simultaneously, the massive and synchronized tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should begin to bear fruit, with inflation moving back towards targets,” the IMF said, adding that its latest World Economic Outlook predicts growth of 2.8% this year before rising modestly to 3% next year, 0.1 percentage point lower than January projections.
“Global inflation will fall, albeit more slowly than expected, from 8.7% last year to 7% this year and 4.9% in 2024,” the IMF stated, adding that the economic slowdown is most pronounced in advanced nations and that inflation is falling more slowly than expected.
According to Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, while regulatory improvements implemented following the Global Financial Crisis made the financial system more resilient, recent occurrences may be a sign of more systemic stress to come.